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Wuhan Jiangcheng vs Shangyu Pterosaur — League Two 2022

Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
FT
0 – 1
Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
7/11/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng41%
×Draw28%
Shangyu Pterosaur31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.27
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.07

Wuhan Jiangcheng creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.05
Shangyu Pterosaur
0.73

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.49

finishing

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par
Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangcheng ↓

Shangyu Pterosaur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangcheng or draw
69%
Wuhan Jiangcheng or Shangyu Pterosaur
72%
Draw or Shangyu Pterosaur
59%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
18%
Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
72%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
36%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
14%
Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
66%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
29%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
57%
Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangcheng at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Shangyu Pterosaur away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.05 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 0.73 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
41%
level
28%
Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
31%

Wuhan Jiangcheng at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wuhan Jiangcheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Jiangcheng vs Shangyu Pterosaur

Shangyu Pterosaur beat Wuhan Jiangcheng 1-0 in League Two on July 11, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 3 in Yancheng.