Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wuhan Jiangcheng vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
8/19/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 1Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng44%
×Draw26%
Hunan Billows FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.48
Hunan Billows FC
1.18

Wuhan Jiangcheng creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.05
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangcheng ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangcheng or draw
70%
Wuhan Jiangcheng or Hunan Billows FC
74%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
56%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
22%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
77%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
43%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
19%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
69%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
33%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
59%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangcheng at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.05 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
44%
level
26%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
30%

Wuhan Jiangcheng at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wuhan Jiangcheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Wuhan Jiangcheng 3–0 Hunan Billows FC

Wuhan Jiangcheng beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in League Two on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Hankou Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.