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Wuhan Jiangcheng vs Dalian Zhixing — League Two 2022

Wuhan Jiangcheng
Wuhan Jiangcheng
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dalian Zhixing
Dalian Zhixing
6/25/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Hankou Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Wuhan Jiangcheng24%
×Draw26%
Dalian Zhixing50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Jiangcheng
0.94
Dalian Zhixing
1.48

Dalian Zhixing creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.05
Dalian Zhixing
1.55

allows per match

Wuhan Jiangcheng
1.42
Dalian Zhixing
0.82

finishing

Wuhan Jiangcheng+0.00on par
Dalian Zhixing+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Jiangcheng ↓

Dalian Zhixing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wuhan Jiangcheng or draw
50%
Wuhan Jiangcheng or Dalian Zhixing
74%
Draw or Dalian Zhixing
76%

Winning margin

Wuhan Jiangcheng wins by 2+
8%
Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wuhan Jiangcheng 1+ goals
61%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 2+ goals
24%
Wuhan Jiangcheng 3+ goals
7%
Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals
77%
Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals
43%
Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Jiangcheng (draw refunded)
33%
Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Jiangcheng at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Jiangcheng attack 1.05 + Dalian Zhixing defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.94

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.55 + Wuhan Jiangcheng defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wuhan Jiangcheng scores more
24%
level
26%
Dalian Zhixing scores more
50%

Dalian Zhixing at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dalian Zhixing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Wuhan Jiangcheng 1–3 Dalian Zhixing

Dalian Zhixing beat Wuhan Jiangcheng 3-1 in League Two on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Hankou Sports Center Stadium in Wuhan.