Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

WSG Wattens vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz — Regionalliga - West 2024

WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
4/9/2016Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 21Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

WSG Wattens94%
×Draw4%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz1%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSG Wattens
4.22
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.45

WSG Wattens creates 838% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

WSG Wattens
4.20
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0.50

allows per match

WSG Wattens
0.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
4.25

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–16%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw
99%
WSG Wattens or Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
96%
Draw or Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
6%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+
84%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals
98%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
91%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
76%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 1+ goals
36%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 2+ goals
8%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
99%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 4.20 + Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 4.22

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz attack 0.50 + WSG Wattens defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

WSG Wattens scores more
94%
level
4%
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz scores more
1%

WSG Wattens at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WSG Wattens vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

WSG Wattens beat Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 6-0 in Regionalliga - West on April 9, 2016.

The match was played at Gernot Langes Stadion in Wattens.