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WSG Wattens vs Ried — Bundesliga 2018

WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ried
Ried
5/12/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 7Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

WSG Wattens44%
×Draw25%
Ried31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSG Wattens
1.50
Ried
1.22

WSG Wattens creates 23% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 65 away

creates per match

WSG Wattens
1.30
Ried
0.85

allows per match

WSG Wattens
1.58
Ried
1.71

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par
Ried+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Ried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw
69%
WSG Wattens or Ried
75%
Draw or Ried
56%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+
21%
Ried wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals
78%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
44%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
19%
Ried 1+ goals
70%
Ried 2+ goals
34%
Ried 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
59%
Ried (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Ried away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.71 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 1.30 + Ried defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ried attack 0.85 + WSG Wattens defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

WSG Wattens scores more
44%
level
25%
Ried scores more
31%

WSG Wattens at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WSG Wattens vs Ried

WSG Wattens and Ried drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck.