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WSG Wattens vs Neumarkt — Regionalliga - West 2025

WSG Wattens
WSG Wattens
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Neumarkt
Neumarkt
5/9/2014Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 27Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

WSG Wattens89%
×Draw8%
Neumarkt4%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSG Wattens
3.67
Neumarkt
0.67

WSG Wattens creates 448% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

WSG Wattens
3.67
Neumarkt
0.67

allows per match

WSG Wattens
0.67
Neumarkt
3.67

finishing

WSG Wattens+0.00on par
Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSG Wattens ↓

Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

WSG Wattens or draw
96%
WSG Wattens or Neumarkt
92%
Draw or Neumarkt
11%

Winning margin

WSG Wattens wins by 2+
74%
Neumarkt wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

WSG Wattens 1+ goals
97%
WSG Wattens 2+ goals
87%
WSG Wattens 3+ goals
68%
Neumarkt 1+ goals
49%
Neumarkt 2+ goals
15%
Neumarkt 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)
96%
Neumarkt (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSG Wattens at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Neumarkt away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSG Wattens attack 3.67 + Neumarkt defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.67

Neumarkt attack 0.67 + WSG Wattens defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

WSG Wattens scores more
89%
level
8%
Neumarkt scores more
4%

WSG Wattens at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WSG Wattens vs Neumarkt

WSG Wattens beat Neumarkt 6-0 in Regionalliga - West on May 9, 2014.

The match was played at Gernot Langes Stadion in Wattens.