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WSA Winnipeg vs Saint Louis — USL League Two 2018

WSA Winnipeg
WSA Winnipeg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
6/30/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 6John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

WSA Winnipeg12%
×Draw17%
Saint Louis72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSA Winnipeg
0.90
Saint Louis
2.48

Saint Louis creates 176% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

WSA Winnipeg
0.00
Saint Louis
2.20

allows per match

WSA Winnipeg
2.75
Saint Louis
1.80

finishing

WSA Winnipeg+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSA Winnipeg ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

WSA Winnipeg or draw
28%
WSA Winnipeg or Saint Louis
83%
Draw or Saint Louis
88%

Winning margin

WSA Winnipeg wins by 2+
4%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

WSA Winnipeg 1+ goals
59%
WSA Winnipeg 2+ goals
23%
WSA Winnipeg 3+ goals
6%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
92%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
70%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

WSA Winnipeg (draw refunded)
14%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSA Winnipeg at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSA Winnipeg attack 0.00 + Saint Louis defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Saint Louis attack 2.20 + WSA Winnipeg defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

WSA Winnipeg scores more
12%
level
17%
Saint Louis scores more
72%

Saint Louis at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WSA Winnipeg 0 – 3 Saint Louis

Saint Louis beat WSA Winnipeg 3-0 in USL League Two on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex.