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WSA Winnipeg vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

WSA Winnipeg
WSA Winnipeg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
7/2/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 8John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

WSA Winnipeg21%
×Draw22%
Green Bay Voyageurs57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSA Winnipeg
1.05
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.88

Green Bay Voyageurs creates 79% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

WSA Winnipeg
0.00
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

WSA Winnipeg
2.75
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

WSA Winnipeg+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSA Winnipeg ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

WSA Winnipeg or draw
43%
WSA Winnipeg or Green Bay Voyageurs
78%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
79%

Winning margin

WSA Winnipeg wins by 2+
8%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

WSA Winnipeg 1+ goals
65%
WSA Winnipeg 2+ goals
28%
WSA Winnipeg 3+ goals
9%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
85%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
56%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

WSA Winnipeg (draw refunded)
27%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSA Winnipeg at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSA Winnipeg attack 0.00 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.05

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + WSA Winnipeg defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

WSA Winnipeg scores more
21%
level
22%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
57%

Green Bay Voyageurs at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Green Bay Voyageurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WSA Winnipeg 0 – 2 Green Bay Voyageurs

Green Bay Voyageurs beat WSA Winnipeg 2-0 in USL League Two on July 2, 2019.

The match was played at John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex.