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WSA Winnipeg vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

WSA Winnipeg
WSA Winnipeg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
6/25/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 2John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

WSA Winnipeg5%
×Draw13%
Des Moines Menace82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WSA Winnipeg
0.47
Des Moines Menace
2.51

Des Moines Menace creates 434% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 41 away

creates per match

WSA Winnipeg
0.00
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

WSA Winnipeg
2.75
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

WSA Winnipeg+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WSA Winnipeg ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–113%
0–216%
0–314%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

WSA Winnipeg or draw
18%
WSA Winnipeg or Des Moines Menace
87%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
95%

Winning margin

WSA Winnipeg wins by 2+
1%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

WSA Winnipeg 1+ goals
37%
WSA Winnipeg 2+ goals
8%
WSA Winnipeg 3+ goals
1%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
92%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
71%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

WSA Winnipeg (draw refunded)
6%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WSA Winnipeg at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WSA Winnipeg attack 0.00 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.47

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + WSA Winnipeg defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

WSA Winnipeg scores more
5%
level
13%
Des Moines Menace scores more
82%

Des Moines Menace at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WSA Winnipeg 0 – 4 Des Moines Menace

Des Moines Menace beat WSA Winnipeg 4-0 in USL League Two on June 25, 2019.

The match was played at John Scouras Field at Ralph Cantafio Soccerplex.