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Wroxham vs Waltham Abbey — League #52 2026

Wroxham
Wroxham
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Waltham Abbey
Waltham Abbey
9/30/2025League #52League #52 · Isthmian North - 6Trafford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Wroxham39%
×Draw26%
Waltham Abbey35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wroxham
1.34
Waltham Abbey
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wroxham
1.29
Waltham Abbey
1.20

allows per match

Wroxham
1.29
Waltham Abbey
1.40

finishing

Wroxham+0.00on par
Waltham Abbey+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wroxham ↓

Waltham Abbey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wroxham or draw
65%
Wroxham or Waltham Abbey
74%
Draw or Waltham Abbey
61%

Winning margin

Wroxham wins by 2+
18%
Waltham Abbey wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wroxham 1+ goals
74%
Wroxham 2+ goals
39%
Wroxham 3+ goals
15%
Waltham Abbey 1+ goals
71%
Waltham Abbey 2+ goals
36%
Waltham Abbey 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wroxham (draw refunded)
53%
Waltham Abbey (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wroxham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Waltham Abbey away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wroxham attack 1.29 + Waltham Abbey defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Waltham Abbey attack 1.20 + Wroxham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wroxham scores more
39%
level
26%
Waltham Abbey scores more
35%

Wroxham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wroxham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #52: Wroxham 4–3 Waltham Abbey

Wroxham beat Waltham Abbey 4-3 in League #52 on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Trafford Park in Wroxham, Norfolk.