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Wroxham vs Gorleston — League #52 2026

Wroxham
Wroxham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gorleston
Gorleston
4/6/2026League #52League #52

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wroxham65%
×Draw21%
Gorleston15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wroxham
1.98
Gorleston
0.81

Wroxham creates 144% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wroxham
1.29
Gorleston
0.33

allows per match

Wroxham
1.29
Gorleston
2.67

finishing

Wroxham+0.00on par
Gorleston+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wroxham ↓

Gorleston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wroxham or draw
85%
Wroxham or Gorleston
79%
Draw or Gorleston
35%

Winning margin

Wroxham wins by 2+
40%
Gorleston wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wroxham 1+ goals
86%
Wroxham 2+ goals
59%
Wroxham 3+ goals
31%
Gorleston 1+ goals
56%
Gorleston 2+ goals
19%
Gorleston 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wroxham (draw refunded)
82%
Gorleston (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wroxham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Gorleston away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wroxham attack 1.29 + Gorleston defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gorleston attack 0.33 + Wroxham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wroxham scores more
65%
level
21%
Gorleston scores more
15%

Wroxham at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wroxham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #52: Wroxham 1–0 Gorleston

Wroxham beat Gorleston 1-0 in League #52 on April 6, 2026.