Wroxham 1–1 Cambridge City: Result & Stats

Wroxham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge City

12/20/2025

League #52

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wroxham42%

×Draw28%

Cambridge City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WroxhamExpected goals in this matchCambridge City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Wroxham

1.27

Cambridge City

1.02

Wroxham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.29

creates per match

0.75

1.29

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Wroxham

1.29

Cambridge City

0.75

allows per match

Wroxham

1.29

Cambridge City

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wroxham+0.00on par

Cambridge City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wroxham ↓

Cambridge City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wroxham or draw

70%

Wroxham or Cambridge City

72%

Draw or Cambridge City

58%

Winning margin

Wroxham wins by 2+

19%

Cambridge City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wroxham 1+ goals

72%

Wroxham 2+ goals

36%

Wroxham 3+ goals

14%

Cambridge City 1+ goals

64%

Cambridge City 2+ goals

27%

Cambridge City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wroxham (draw refunded)

59%

Cambridge City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wroxham at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Cambridge City away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wroxham attack 1.29 + Cambridge City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cambridge City attack 0.75 + Wroxham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wroxham scores more

42%

level

28%

Cambridge City scores more

30%

Wroxham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wroxham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff