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Wrexham vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
8/15/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 3STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham58%
×Draw21%
Walsall21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
2.01
Walsall
1.11

Wrexham creates 81% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 157 away

creates per match

Wrexham
2.70
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Wrexham
1.09
Walsall
1.32

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
79%
Wrexham or Walsall
79%
Draw or Walsall
42%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
35%
Walsall wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
87%
Wrexham 2+ goals
59%
Wrexham 3+ goals
32%
Walsall 1+ goals
67%
Walsall 2+ goals
30%
Walsall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
74%
Walsall (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Walsall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.01

Walsall attack 1.13 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wrexham scores more
58%
level
21%
Walsall scores more
21%

Wrexham at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Walsall

Wrexham beat Walsall 4-2 in League Two on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.