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Wrexham vs Sutton Utd — League Two 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
10/24/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 15STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham62%
×Draw20%
Sutton Utd18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
2.22
Sutton Utd
1.10

Wrexham creates 102% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 69 away

creates per match

Wrexham
2.70
Sutton Utd
1.12

allows per match

Wrexham
1.09
Sutton Utd
1.74

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
82%
Wrexham or Sutton Utd
80%
Draw or Sutton Utd
38%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
40%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
89%
Wrexham 2+ goals
65%
Wrexham 3+ goals
38%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
67%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
30%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
78%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.22

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wrexham scores more
62%
level
20%
Sutton Utd scores more
18%

Wrexham at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Sutton Utd

Wrexham beat Sutton Utd 2-1 in League Two on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.