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Wrexham vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
15:00
Stoke City
Stoke City
3/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Racecourse Ground
48%
Wrexham
model favours
48%25%27%

Wrexham sit 7, Stoke City 17 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Wrexham48%
×Draw25%
Stoke City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.57
Stoke City
1.11

Wrexham creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.53
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Wrexham
1.18
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Wrexham+0.32scores more
Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
73%
Wrexham or Stoke City
75%
Draw or Stoke City
52%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
25%
Stoke City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
79%
Wrexham 2+ goals
46%
Wrexham 3+ goals
21%
Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
64%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 20 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.61 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.53 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Wrexham defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wrexham scores more
48%
level
25%
Stoke City scores more
27%

Wrexham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Wrexham
Balanced
Stoke City
Balanced
48%Possession50%
77%Pass accuracy75%
11.3Shots11.4
1.21xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WrexhamStoke City

Head-to-head

3 previous meetings

1
Wrexham
0
Draws
2
Stoke City
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 33%
2–00–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wrexham
WDDLW
City
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wrexham host Stoke City

March 20, 2027: Wrexham take on Stoke City in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wrexham host Stoke City at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.