Wrexham 2–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Wrexham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stoke City

J. Windass 33', 31'

4/18/2026

Championship · Round 43Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Wrexham48%

×Draw25%

Stoke City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.11

Wrexham

1.57

Stoke City

1.11

Wrexham creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 52 away

1.53

creates per match

1.05

1.18

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Wrexham

1.53

Stoke City

1.05

allows per match

Wrexham

1.18

Stoke City

1.61

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Wrexham+0.32scores more

Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

73%

Wrexham or Stoke City

75%

Draw or Stoke City

52%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

25%

Stoke City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

79%

Wrexham 2+ goals

46%

Wrexham 3+ goals

21%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

30%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

64%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 20 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.61 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.53 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Wrexham defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wrexham scores more

48%

level

25%

Stoke City scores more

27%

Wrexham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Thomason

Wrexham · D

8.3

Match Events

31'

J. Windass↳ G. Thomason

33'

J. Windass

46'

J. Rak-Sakyi← A. Cresswell

47'

Million Manhoef

52'

R. Bozenik← S. Gallagher

68'

T. Seko← L. Baker

73'

L. O'Brien← O. Rathbone

78'

N. Broadhead← J. Windass

79'

K. Moore← S. Smith

86'

R. Otegbayo← B. Lawal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WrexhamStoke

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots6

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.35

2Corners6

8Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots6

4On Target0

3Off Target4

2Blocked2

4Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

446Total Passes374

364Accurate Passes291

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-1.20Goals Prevented-1.20

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1