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Wrexham vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
J. Marriott 59'
E. Lee 42'
O. Palmer 15'
9/7/2024League OneLeague One · Round 5STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham57%
×Draw25%
Shrewsbury18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.58
Shrewsbury
0.76

Wrexham creates 108% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 152 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
82%
Wrexham or Shrewsbury
75%
Draw or Shrewsbury
43%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
30%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
79%
Wrexham 2+ goals
47%
Wrexham 3+ goals
21%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
53%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
18%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
76%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wrexham scores more
57%
level
25%
Shrewsbury scores more
18%

Wrexham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
E. LeeWrexhamWrexham · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
Malvind Benning
15'
O. Palmer↳ J. McClean
28'
James McClean
35'
George Dobson
42'
E. Lee↳ R. Barnett
44'
Elliot Lee
59'
J. Marriott
60'
T. O'Reilly← L. Castledine
64'
C. Sagoe Jr← T. Bloxham
64'
J. Feeney← A. Nsiala
69'
Funso Ojo
71'
P. Mullin← J. Marriott
72'
J. Jones← O. Rathbone
72'
S. Fletcher← O. Palmer
76'
Carl Winchester
82'
S. Revan← J. McClean
90'
George Lloyd

Possession

56%Wrexham

Shots

15Wrexham

Pass accuracy

52%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamShrewsbury
Overview
56%Possession44%
15Total Shots9
5Corners7
12Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots9
6On Target3
6Off Target2
3Blocked4
10Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
451Total Passes350
345Accurate Passes246
76%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls15
3Yellow Cards4
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Shrewsbury

Wrexham beat Shrewsbury 3-0 in League One on September 7, 2024.

Goals: O. Palmer (15'), E. Lee (42'), J. Marriott (59').

Wrexham controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.