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Wrexham vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Salford City
Salford City
10/14/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 13STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham55%
×Draw22%
Salford City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.95
Salford City
1.20

Wrexham creates 63% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 157 away

creates per match

Wrexham
2.70
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Wrexham
1.09
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
77%
Wrexham or Salford City
78%
Draw or Salford City
45%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
32%
Salford City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
86%
Wrexham 2+ goals
58%
Wrexham 3+ goals
31%
Salford City 1+ goals
70%
Salford City 2+ goals
34%
Salford City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
70%
Salford City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.95

Salford City attack 1.31 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wrexham scores more
55%
level
22%
Salford City scores more
23%

Wrexham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Salford City

Wrexham beat Salford City 3-2 in League Two on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.