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Wrexham vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rotherham
Rotherham
S. Smith 48'
3/8/2025League OneLeague One · Round 36STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham50%
×Draw27%
Rotherham23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.46
Rotherham
0.90

Wrexham creates 62% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 99 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Rotherham
1.15

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Rotherham
1.15

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
77%
Wrexham or Rotherham
73%
Draw or Rotherham
50%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
25%
Rotherham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
77%
Wrexham 2+ goals
43%
Wrexham 3+ goals
18%
Rotherham 1+ goals
59%
Rotherham 2+ goals
23%
Rotherham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
68%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wrexham scores more
50%
level
27%
Rotherham scores more
23%

Wrexham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
E. O'ConnellWrexhamWrexham · D
7.9

Match Events

48'
S. Smith↳ J. Rodríguez
65'
S. Fletcher← J. Rodríguez
65'
J. McClean← E. Lee
66'
A. Green← L. Sibley
66'
J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← J. Clarke-Harris
71'
G. Evans← O. Rathbone
81'
Mallik Wilks
87'
J. Marriott← S. Smith
87'
J. Holmes← M. Wilks
88'
J. Rafferty← J. Powell

Possession

45%Wrexham

Shots

9Wrexham

Pass accuracy

50%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamRotherham
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots11
2Corners7
12Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots11
3On Target3
2Off Target5
4Blocked3
5Inside Box4
4Outside Box7
Passing
45%Possession55%
293Total Passes351
189Accurate Passes225
65%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

League One: Wrexham 1–0 Rotherham

Wrexham beat Rotherham 1-0 in League One on March 8, 2025.

Goals: S. Smith (48').

Rotherham controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.