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Wrexham vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
11/25/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 19STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham63%
×Draw20%
Morecambe18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
2.23
Morecambe
1.10

Wrexham creates 103% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 112 away

creates per match

Wrexham
2.70
Morecambe
1.10

allows per match

Wrexham
1.09
Morecambe
1.75

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
82%
Wrexham or Morecambe
80%
Draw or Morecambe
37%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
40%
Morecambe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
89%
Wrexham 2+ goals
65%
Wrexham 3+ goals
38%
Morecambe 1+ goals
67%
Morecambe 2+ goals
30%
Morecambe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
78%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.75 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Morecambe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.23

Morecambe attack 1.10 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Wrexham scores more
63%
level
20%
Morecambe scores more
18%

Wrexham at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Morecambe

Wrexham beat Morecambe 6-0 in League Two on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.