Wrexham 3–5 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Wrexham

FT

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Milton Keynes Dons

A. Forde 90+6'

J. Davies 82'

J. Mendy 42'

D. Harvie 90+4'

J. Leko 64', 51'

M. Eisa 10'

E. O'Connell 6' (OG)

8/5/2023

League Two · Round 1STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham56%

×Draw21%

Milton Keynes Dons23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.31

Wrexham

2.13

Milton Keynes Dons

1.31

Wrexham creates 63% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 93 away

2.70

creates per match

1.54

1.09

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Wrexham

2.70

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

allows per match

Wrexham

1.09

Milton Keynes Dons

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

77%

Wrexham or Milton Keynes Dons

79%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

44%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

34%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

88%

Wrexham 2+ goals

63%

Wrexham 3+ goals

35%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

73%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

38%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

71%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.13

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.54 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wrexham scores more

56%

level

21%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

23%

Wrexham at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Leko

Milton Keynes Dons · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

E. O'ConnellOwn goal

10'

M. Eisa↳ J. Leko

11'

23'

24'

42'

51'

61'

61'

61'

J. Bickerstaff← S. Dalby

64'

J. Leko↳ M. Eisa

68'

Cameron Norman

78'

A. Hunter← J. Leko

79'

B. Hosannah← J. Mendy

79'

A. Forde← R. Barnett

82'

J. Davies↳ B. Hosannah

84'

90+1'

90+4'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WrexhamMilton

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots8

5Corners4

15Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots8

6On Target6

12Off Target1

5Blocked1

13Inside Box2

10Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

544Total Passes310

407Accurate Passes181

75%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons beat Wrexham 5-3 in League Two on August 5, 2023.

Goals: E. O'Connell (6' o.g.), M. Eisa (10'), J. Mendy (42'), J. Leko (51', 64'), J. Davies (82'), D. Harvie (90+4'), A. Forde (90+6').

Wrexham controlled possession (64%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.

Wrexham vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Milton Keynes Dons