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Wrexham vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
18:45
Millwall
Millwall
4/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Racecourse Ground
38%
Millwall
model favours
37%25%38%
1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham37%
×Draw25%
Millwall38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.41
Millwall
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 35 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Millwall
1.23

allows per match

Wrexham
1.61
Millwall
1.03

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
62%
Wrexham or Millwall
75%
Draw or Millwall
63%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
17%
Millwall wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
76%
Wrexham 2+ goals
41%
Wrexham 3+ goals
17%
Millwall 1+ goals
76%
Millwall 2+ goals
41%
Millwall 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
50%
Millwall (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.41

Millwall attack 1.23 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wrexham scores more
37%
level
25%
Millwall scores more
38%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Wrexham
Balanced
Millwall
Balanced
50%Possession46%
79%Pass accuracy69%
10.3Shots11.8
1.12xGBiggest gap1.30
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WrexhamMillwall

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wrexham
DDLWW
Millwall
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wrexham vs Millwall — Match Preview

Wrexham face Millwall on April 20, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wrexham host Millwall at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.