Millwall 0–2 Wrexham: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wrexham

L. O'Brien 90'

K. Moore 58'

8/30/2025

Championship · Round 4The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Millwall43%

×Draw28%

Wrexham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.04

Millwall

1.32

Wrexham

1.04

Millwall creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.26

creates per match

0.87

1.21

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Wrexham

0.87

allows per match

Millwall

1.21

Wrexham

1.38

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

Wrexham+0.73scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Wrexham

72%

Draw or Wrexham

57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Wrexham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Wrexham 1+ goals

65%

Wrexham 2+ goals

28%

Wrexham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

59%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 13 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Wrexham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Wrexham attack 0.87 + Millwall defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more

43%

level

28%

Wrexham scores more

29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

L. O'Brien

Wrexham · M

8.3

Match Events

58'

K. Moore↳ M. Cleworth

64'

Callum Doyle

70'

S. Smith← R. Hardie

73'

J. Bryan← Z. Sturge

73'

R. Bangura-Williams← C. Neghli

77'

L. Brunt← C. Doyle

77'

J. McClean← L. Cacace

82'

Raees Bangura-Williams

82'

C. Taylor← R. Leonard

82'

90+20'

90+18'

90'

90+16'

90'

90'

L. O'Brien↳ J. McClean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallWrexham

Overview

60%Possession40%

21Total Shots6

1.76Expected Goals (xG)0.55

5Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots6

2On Target3

14Off Target2

5Blocked1

14Inside Box5

7Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

467Total Passes312

371Accurate Passes225

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.29Goals Prevented0.29

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3