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Wrexham vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
4/13/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 44STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham53%
×Draw22%
Forest Green25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.96
Forest Green
1.27

Wrexham creates 54% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 112 away

creates per match

Wrexham
2.70
Forest Green
1.44

allows per match

Wrexham
1.09
Forest Green
1.21

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
75%
Wrexham or Forest Green
78%
Draw or Forest Green
47%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
31%
Forest Green wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
86%
Wrexham 2+ goals
58%
Wrexham 3+ goals
31%
Forest Green 1+ goals
72%
Forest Green 2+ goals
36%
Forest Green 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
68%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Forest Green defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.96

Forest Green attack 1.44 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wrexham scores more
53%
level
22%
Forest Green scores more
25%

Wrexham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Forest Green

Wrexham beat Forest Green 6-0 in League Two on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.