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Wrexham vs Doncaster — League Two 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
E. Lee 88'
L. Young 37'
M. Faal 52'
9/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 7STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham56%
×Draw21%
Doncaster22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
2.06
Doncaster
1.23

Wrexham creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 73 away

creates per match

Wrexham
2.70
Doncaster
1.38

allows per match

Wrexham
1.09
Doncaster
1.42

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
78%
Wrexham or Doncaster
79%
Draw or Doncaster
44%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
34%
Doncaster wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
87%
Wrexham 2+ goals
61%
Wrexham 3+ goals
34%
Doncaster 1+ goals
71%
Doncaster 2+ goals
35%
Doncaster 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
71%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.06

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wrexham scores more
56%
level
21%
Doncaster scores more
22%

Wrexham at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
E. LeeWrexhamWrexham · M
8.3

Match Events

21'
Elliot Lee
32'
M. Cleworth← A. Hayden
37'
L. Young↳ R. Barnett
47'
Joseph Olowu
52'
M. Faal↳ J. Ironside
59'
P. Mullin← S. Dalby
62'
T. Nixon← J. Olowu
77'
L. Marsh← M. Faal
77'
K. Hurst← L. Molyneux
79'
Thomas O'Connor
80'
Jack Senior
82'
S. Fletcher← O. Palmer
82'
G. Evans← L. McAlinden
88'
E. Lee↳ G. Evans
89'
Max Cleworth
90+9'
Tom Anderson
90'
T. Roberts← G. Broadbent

Possession

48%Wrexham

Shots

16Wrexham

Pass accuracy

47%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamDoncaster
Overview
48%Possession52%
16Total Shots8
6Corners4
9Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots8
8On Target2
4Off Target3
4Blocked3
11Inside Box7
5Outside Box1
Passing
48%Possession52%
396Total Passes449
288Accurate Passes370
73%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Doncaster

Wrexham beat Doncaster 2-1 in League Two on September 9, 2023.

Goals: L. Young (37'), M. Faal (52'), E. Lee (88').

Doncaster controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.