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Wrexham vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Barrow
Barrow
1/1/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 26STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham61%
×Draw21%
Barrow18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
2.07
Barrow
1.04

Wrexham creates 99% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 138 away

creates per match

Wrexham
2.70
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Wrexham
1.09
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
82%
Wrexham or Barrow
79%
Draw or Barrow
39%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
37%
Barrow wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
87%
Wrexham 2+ goals
61%
Wrexham 3+ goals
34%
Barrow 1+ goals
65%
Barrow 2+ goals
28%
Barrow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
77%
Barrow (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 2.70 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.07

Barrow attack 0.99 + Wrexham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wrexham scores more
61%
level
21%
Barrow scores more
18%

Wrexham at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Barrow

Wrexham beat Barrow 4-1 in League Two on January 1, 2024.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.