Wotton 1–5 Weymouth Wales: Result & Stats

Wotton

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Weymouth Wales

4/7/2025

Premier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Wotton12%

×Draw16%

Weymouth Wales72%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WottonExpected goals in this matchWeymouth Wales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.69

Wotton

1.04

Weymouth Wales

2.69

Weymouth Wales creates 159% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

1.29

creates per match

3.04

2.33

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Wotton

1.29

Weymouth Wales

3.04

allows per match

Wotton

2.33

Weymouth Wales

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

Weymouth Wales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Wotton or draw

28%

Wotton or Weymouth Wales

84%

Draw or Weymouth Wales

88%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+

4%

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals

65%

Wotton 2+ goals

28%

Wotton 3+ goals

9%

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals

93%

Weymouth Wales 2+ goals

74%

Weymouth Wales 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)

15%

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.29 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Weymouth Wales attack 3.04 + Wotton defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Wotton scores more

12%

level

16%

Weymouth Wales scores more

72%

Weymouth Wales at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff