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Wotton vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2019

Wotton
Wotton
FT
1 – 0
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
6/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wotton15%
×Draw17%
Weymouth Wales68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wotton
1.13
Weymouth Wales
2.58

Weymouth Wales creates 128% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 42 away

creates per match

Wotton
1.49
Weymouth Wales
3.05

allows per match

Wotton
2.11
Weymouth Wales
0.76

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Wotton or draw
32%
Wotton or Weymouth Wales
83%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
85%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+
5%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals
68%
Wotton 2+ goals
31%
Wotton 3+ goals
11%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
92%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
72%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)
18%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 37 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.49 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.13

Weymouth Wales attack 3.05 + Wotton defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Wotton scores more
15%
level
17%
Weymouth Wales scores more
68%

Weymouth Wales at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wotton vs Weymouth Wales

Wotton beat Weymouth Wales 1-0 in Premier League on June 12, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.