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Worthing W vs AFC Wimbledon W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Worthing W
Worthing W
FT
2 – 3
AFC Wimbledon W
AFC Wimbledon W
10/22/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingSussex Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Worthing W60%
×Draw17%
AFC Wimbledon W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Worthing W
3.17
AFC Wimbledon W
2.00

Worthing W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Worthing W
4.67
AFC Wimbledon W
2.67

allows per match

Worthing W
1.33
AFC Wimbledon W
1.67

finishing

Worthing W+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Worthing W ↓

AFC Wimbledon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Worthing W or draw
77%
Worthing W or AFC Wimbledon W
83%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon W
40%

Winning margin

Worthing W wins by 2+
41%
AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Worthing W 1+ goals
96%
Worthing W 2+ goals
82%
Worthing W 3+ goals
60%
AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals
86%
AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals
59%
AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Worthing W (draw refunded)
72%
AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Worthing W at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

AFC Wimbledon W away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Worthing W attack 4.67 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 3.17

AFC Wimbledon W attack 2.67 + Worthing W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Worthing W scores more
60%
level
17%
AFC Wimbledon W scores more
23%

Worthing W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Worthing W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Worthing W 2–3 AFC Wimbledon W

AFC Wimbledon W beat Worthing W 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sussex Transport Community Stadium in Worthing, West Sussex.