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Worthing vs Weston-super-Mare — League #51 2026

Worthing
Worthing
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare
1/31/2026League #51League #51

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Worthing62%
×Draw20%
Weston-super-Mare18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Worthing
2.13
Weston-super-Mare
1.05

Worthing creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Worthing
2.86
Weston-super-Mare
1.40

allows per match

Worthing
0.71
Weston-super-Mare
1.40

finishing

Worthing+0.00on par
Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Worthing ↓

Weston-super-Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Worthing or draw
82%
Worthing or Weston-super-Mare
80%
Draw or Weston-super-Mare
38%

Winning margin

Worthing wins by 2+
38%
Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Worthing 1+ goals
88%
Worthing 2+ goals
63%
Worthing 3+ goals
35%
Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals
65%
Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals
28%
Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Worthing (draw refunded)
78%
Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Worthing at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Weston-super-Mare away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Worthing attack 2.86 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.13

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.40 + Worthing defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Worthing scores more
62%
level
20%
Weston-super-Mare scores more
18%

Worthing at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Worthing vs Weston-super-Mare

Worthing and Weston-super-Mare drew 1-1 in League #51 on January 31, 2026.