Worthing 4–2 Torquay: Result & Stats | League #51

Worthing

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Torquay

D. Cashman 90', 29'

O. Pearce 41'

D. Fage 22'

E. Archer 66'

T. Lapslie 11'

1/27/2024

League #51 · South - 31Sussex Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Worthing61%

×Draw21%

Torquay18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WorthingExpected goals in this matchTorquay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.01

Worthing

2.05

Torquay

1.01

Worthing creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

2.86

creates per match

1.31

0.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Worthing

2.86

Torquay

1.31

allows per match

Worthing

0.71

Torquay

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Worthing+0.00on par

Torquay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Worthing ↓

Torquay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Worthing or draw

82%

Worthing or Torquay

79%

Draw or Torquay

39%

Winning margin

Worthing wins by 2+

37%

Torquay wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Worthing 1+ goals

87%

Worthing 2+ goals

61%

Worthing 3+ goals

33%

Torquay 1+ goals

64%

Torquay 2+ goals

27%

Torquay 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Worthing (draw refunded)

77%

Torquay (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Worthing at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Torquay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Worthing attack 2.86 + Torquay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.05

Torquay attack 1.31 + Worthing defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Worthing scores more

61%

level

21%

Torquay scores more

18%

Worthing at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. Lapslie

22'

D. Fage

29'

D. Cashman

36'

R. Lovett← M. Halstead

41'

O. Pearce

45+3'

F. Craske← R. Marshall

66'

C. Tutt← R. Livesey-Austin

66'

E. Archer

80'

J. Robinson← F. Chadwick

82'

L. Collins← T. Lapslie

85'

88'

88'

90'

Worthing

Torquay

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

Manager: A. Hinshelwood

66'▲C. Tutt←▼R. Livesey-Austin

80'▲J. Robinson←▼F. Chadwick

85'▲O. Starkey←▼D. Fage

Worthing substitutes

TuttRobinsonStarkeyReesDolaghan

Manager: G. Johnson

36'▲R. Lovett←▼M. Halstead

45+3'▲F. Craske←▼R. Marshall

82'▲L. Collins←▼T. Lapslie

Torquay substitutes

LovettCraskeCollinsHallHarris

League #51: Worthing 4–2 Torquay

Worthing beat Torquay 4-2 in League #51 on January 27, 2024.

Goals: T. Lapslie (11'), D. Fage (22'), D. Cashman (29', 90'), O. Pearce (41'), E. Archer (66').

The match was played at Sussex Transport Community Stadium in Worthing, West Sussex.

Worthing vs Torquay — League #51 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #51: Worthing 4–2 Torquay