Torquay 3–2 Worthing: Result & Stats | League #51

Torquay

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Worthing

L. Dennis 55', 24'

J. Young 31'

J. Cook 17'

J. Colbran 9'

11/25/2025

League #51 · South - 19Plainmoor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Torquay46%

×Draw23%

Worthing31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorquayExpected goals in this matchWorthing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.43

Torquay

1.77

Worthing

1.43

Torquay creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

2.19

creates per match

1.55

1.31

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Torquay

2.19

Worthing

1.55

allows per match

Torquay

1.31

Worthing

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torquay+0.00on par

Worthing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torquay ↓

Worthing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Torquay or draw

69%

Torquay or Worthing

77%

Draw or Worthing

54%

Winning margin

Torquay wins by 2+

24%

Worthing wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Torquay 1+ goals

83%

Torquay 2+ goals

53%

Torquay 3+ goals

26%

Worthing 1+ goals

76%

Worthing 2+ goals

42%

Worthing 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Torquay (draw refunded)

59%

Worthing (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torquay at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Worthing away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torquay attack 2.19 + Worthing defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.77

Worthing attack 1.55 + Torquay defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torquay scores more

46%

level

23%

Worthing scores more

31%

Torquay at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torquay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

17'

24'

31'

55'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff