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Worthing vs Slough Town — League #51 2026

Worthing
Worthing
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Slough Town
Slough Town
G. Cox 43'
T. Jenks 38', 6'
J. Spong 33'
W. Makowski 90+3'
2/21/2026League #51League #51 · South - 34Sussex Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Worthing79%
×Draw14%
Slough Town7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Worthing
2.55
Slough Town
0.60

Worthing creates 325% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

Worthing
2.86
Slough Town
0.50

allows per match

Worthing
0.71
Slough Town
2.25

finishing

Worthing+0.00on par
Slough Town+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Worthing ↓

Slough Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Worthing or draw
93%
Worthing or Slough Town
86%
Draw or Slough Town
21%

Winning margin

Worthing wins by 2+
57%
Slough Town wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Worthing 1+ goals
92%
Worthing 2+ goals
72%
Worthing 3+ goals
46%
Slough Town 1+ goals
45%
Slough Town 2+ goals
12%
Slough Town 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Worthing (draw refunded)
92%
Slough Town (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Worthing at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Slough Town away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Worthing attack 2.86 + Slough Town defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.55

Slough Town attack 0.50 + Worthing defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Worthing scores more
79%
level
14%
Slough Town scores more
7%

Worthing at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
T. Jenks
33'
J. Spong
38'
T. Jenks
43'
G. Cox
90+3'
W. Makowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Worthing vs Slough Town

Worthing beat Slough Town 4-1 in League #51 on February 21, 2026.

Goals: T. Jenks (6', 38'), J. Spong (33'), G. Cox (43'), W. Makowski (90+3').

The match was played at Sussex Transport Community Stadium in Worthing, West Sussex.