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Worthing vs Dagenham & Redbridge — League #51 2026

Worthing
Worthing
FT
7 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham & Redbridge
B. Dolaghan 90+8'
J. Cook 90+4'
C. Morton 81'
T. Jenks 62'
W. Makowski 47', 27'
J. Spong 26'
A. Oteh 57'
K. Connolly 11'
4/11/2026League #51League #51 · South - 44Sussex Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Worthing72%
×Draw15%
Dagenham & Redbridge13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Worthing
2.93
Dagenham & Redbridge
1.19

Worthing creates 146% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

Worthing
2.86
Dagenham & Redbridge
1.67

allows per match

Worthing
0.71
Dagenham & Redbridge
3.00

finishing

Worthing+0.00on par
Dagenham & Redbridge+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Worthing ↓

Dagenham & Redbridge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Worthing or draw
87%
Worthing or Dagenham & Redbridge
85%
Draw or Dagenham & Redbridge
28%

Winning margin

Worthing wins by 2+
52%
Dagenham & Redbridge wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Worthing 1+ goals
94%
Worthing 2+ goals
78%
Worthing 3+ goals
55%
Dagenham & Redbridge 1+ goals
70%
Dagenham & Redbridge 2+ goals
33%
Dagenham & Redbridge 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Worthing (draw refunded)
85%
Dagenham & Redbridge (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Worthing at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Dagenham & Redbridge away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Worthing attack 2.86 + Dagenham & Redbridge defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.93

Dagenham & Redbridge attack 1.67 + Worthing defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Worthing scores more
72%
level
15%
Dagenham & Redbridge scores more
13%

Worthing at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
K. Connolly
26'
J. Spong
27'
W. Makowski
47'
W. Makowski
57'
A. Oteh
62'
T. Jenks
81'
C. Morton
85'
S. Leech
90+4'
J. Cook
90+8'
B. Dolaghan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Worthing vs Dagenham & Redbridge

Worthing beat Dagenham & Redbridge 7-2 in League #51 on April 11, 2026.

Goals: K. Connolly (11'), J. Spong (26'), W. Makowski (27', 47'), A. Oteh (57'), T. Jenks (62'), C. Morton (81'), J. Cook (90+4'), B. Dolaghan (90+8').

The match was played at Sussex Transport Community Stadium in Worthing, West Sussex.