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Wormatia Worms vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
M. Wingender 70'
L. Tuchscherer 7'
11/2/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15EWR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Wormatia Worms47%
×Draw22%
TuS Koblenz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wormatia Worms
1.88
TuS Koblenz
1.49

Wormatia Worms creates 26% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 60 away

creates per match

Wormatia Worms
2.42
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Wormatia Worms
1.12
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw
69%
Wormatia Worms or TuS Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
53%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
26%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
85%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
56%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
29%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
77%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
44%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
60%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 2.42 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more
47%
level
22%
TuS Koblenz scores more
31%

Wormatia Worms at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
L. Tuchscherer
70'
M. Wingender

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Wormatia Worms 0–2 TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat Wormatia Worms 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 2, 2024.

Goals: L. Tuchscherer (7'), M. Wingender (70').

The match was played at EWR-Arena in Worms.