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Wormatia Worms vs Neckarsulmer SU — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
FT
5 – 1
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
2/8/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wormatia Worms82%
×Draw11%
Neckarsulmer SU7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wormatia Worms
3.50
Neckarsulmer SU
1.00

Wormatia Worms creates 250% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wormatia Worms
3.67
Neckarsulmer SU
0.33

allows per match

Wormatia Worms
1.67
Neckarsulmer SU
3.33

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw
93%
Wormatia Worms or Neckarsulmer SU
89%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
18%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
65%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
97%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
85%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
66%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
63%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
26%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
92%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 3.67 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.50

Neckarsulmer SU attack 0.33 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more
82%
level
11%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
7%

Wormatia Worms at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Wormatia Worms 5–1 Neckarsulmer SU

Wormatia Worms beat Neckarsulmer SU 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 8, 2020.