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Wormatia Worms vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
FT
7 – 2
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
9/5/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1EWR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Wormatia Worms65%
×Draw17%
Jägersburg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wormatia Worms
2.63
Jägersburg
1.30

Wormatia Worms creates 102% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 25 away

creates per match

Wormatia Worms
2.42
Jägersburg
1.48

allows per match

Wormatia Worms
1.12
Jägersburg
2.84

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw
83%
Wormatia Worms or Jägersburg
83%
Draw or Jägersburg
35%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
44%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
93%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
73%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
48%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
73%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
37%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
79%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 2.42 + Jägersburg defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.63

Jägersburg attack 1.48 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more
65%
level
17%
Jägersburg scores more
17%

Wormatia Worms at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wormatia Worms vs Jägersburg

Wormatia Worms beat Jägersburg 7-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at EWR-Arena in Worms.