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Wormatia Worms vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wormatia Worms36%
×Draw18%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wormatia Worms
2.49
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
2.77

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Wormatia Worms
3.67
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
3.88

allows per match

Wormatia Worms
1.67
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
1.31

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw
55%
Wormatia Worms or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
82%
Draw or Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
64%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
21%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
92%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
71%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
45%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1+ goals
94%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2+ goals
76%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
45%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away — creates 3.88, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 3.67 + Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.49

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. attack 3.88 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more
36%
level
18%
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. scores more
45%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Wormatia
Barockstadt
P. Tretter
Manager: P. Tretter
D. Çimen
Manager: D. Çimen

Match Recap: Wormatia Worms vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. beat Wormatia Worms 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.