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Wörgl vs Kundl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Wörgl
Wörgl
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kundl
Kundl
5/31/2025Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 25Sportstadion Wörgl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Wörgl35%
×Draw23%
Kundl42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wörgl
1.63
Kundl
1.79

Kundl creates 10% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wörgl
1.38
Kundl
1.44

allows per match

Wörgl
2.14
Kundl
1.87

finishing

Wörgl+0.00on par
Kundl+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wörgl ↓

Kundl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Wörgl or draw
58%
Wörgl or Kundl
77%
Draw or Kundl
65%

Winning margin

Wörgl wins by 2+
17%
Kundl wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wörgl 1+ goals
80%
Wörgl 2+ goals
48%
Wörgl 3+ goals
22%
Kundl 1+ goals
83%
Kundl 2+ goals
53%
Kundl 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wörgl (draw refunded)
46%
Kundl (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wörgl at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.14 · 42 matches

Kundl away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.87 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wörgl attack 1.38 + Kundl defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kundl attack 1.44 + Wörgl defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wörgl scores more
35%
level
23%
Kundl scores more
42%

Kundl at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kundl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wörgl vs Kundl

Wörgl and Kundl drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Sportstadion Wörgl in Wörgl.