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Worcester City W vs Milton Keynes Dons W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Worcester City W
Worcester City W
FT
0 – 3
Milton Keynes Dons W
Milton Keynes Dons W
11/26/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundSixways Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Worcester City W70%
×Draw15%
Milton Keynes Dons W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Worcester City W
3.06
Milton Keynes Dons W
1.36

Worcester City W creates 125% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Worcester City W
2.33
Milton Keynes Dons W
1.40

allows per match

Worcester City W
1.33
Milton Keynes Dons W
3.80

finishing

Worcester City W+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Worcester City W ↓

Milton Keynes Dons W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Worcester City W or draw
86%
Worcester City W or Milton Keynes Dons W
85%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons W
30%

Winning margin

Worcester City W wins by 2+
51%
Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Worcester City W 1+ goals
95%
Worcester City W 2+ goals
80%
Worcester City W 3+ goals
57%
Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals
74%
Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals
39%
Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Worcester City W (draw refunded)
83%
Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Worcester City W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Milton Keynes Dons W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Worcester City W attack 2.33 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.06

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 1.40 + Worcester City W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Worcester City W scores more
70%
level
15%
Milton Keynes Dons W scores more
14%

Worcester City W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Worcester City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Worcester City W 0–3 Milton Keynes Dons W

Milton Keynes Dons W beat Worcester City W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Sixways Stadium in Worcester, Worcestershire.