Wolves 4–0 Watford: Result & Stats | Premier League

Wolves

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Watford

Rúben Neves 85'

Daniel Podence 21'

J. Hernández 18' (OG)

R. Jiménez 13'

3/10/2022

Premier League · Round 19Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Wolves44%

×Draw26%

Watford29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.13

Wolves

1.45

Watford

1.13

Wolves creates 28% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 114 away

1.13

creates per match

0.96

1.30

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Wolves

1.13

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Wolves

1.30

Watford

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

71%

Wolves or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

56%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

22%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

77%

Wolves 2+ goals

42%

Wolves 3+ goals

18%

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

31%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

60%

Watford (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.13 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Watford attack 0.96 + Wolves defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wolves scores more

44%

level

26%

Watford scores more

29%

Wolves at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Rúben Neves

Wolves · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

R. Jiménez↳ Hwang Hee-Chan

18'

J. HernándezOwn goal

19'

Imrân Louza

21'

Daniel Podence

30'

C. Kabasele← Kiko Femenía

35'

Rayan Aït Nouri

40'

Samir

46'

S. Kalu← J. King

59'

Romain Saïss

61'

Pedro Neto← Hwang Hee-Chan

71'

Fábio Silva← R. Jiménez

73'

O. Etebo← T. Cleverley

82'

Chiquinho← Jonny Castro

85'

Rúben Neves↳ Chiquinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesWatford

Overview

66%Possession34%

10Total Shots9

5Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots9

5On Target0

4Off Target5

1Blocked4

6Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

666Total Passes343

591Accurate Passes269

89%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4