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Wolves vs Swansea — Championship 2025

Wolves
Wolves
Preview
15:00
Swansea
Swansea
12/26/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Molineux Stadium
50%
Wolves
model favours
50%26%24%

Swansea have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wolves50%
×Draw26%
Swansea24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolves
1.52
Swansea
0.98

Wolves creates 55% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 36 away

creates per match

Wolves
1.50
Swansea
0.89

allows per match

Wolves
1.06
Swansea
1.53

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par
Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wolves or draw
76%
Wolves or Swansea
74%
Draw or Swansea
50%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+
25%
Swansea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals
78%
Wolves 2+ goals
45%
Wolves 3+ goals
20%
Swansea 1+ goals
62%
Swansea 2+ goals
26%
Swansea 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)
67%
Swansea (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.50 + Swansea defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swansea attack 0.89 + Wolves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wolves scores more
50%
level
26%
Swansea scores more
24%

Wolves at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
  • Wolves score first in only 15% of matches
  • Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches
  • Swansea win just 20% of their away games
  • 38% of Wolves’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wolves
DDLDL
Swansea
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wolves host Swansea

December 26, 2026: Wolves take on Swansea in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wolves host Swansea at Molineux Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.