Swansea 4–4 Wolves: Result & Stats | Premier League

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.14

Swansea

1.39

Wolves

1.14

Swansea creates 22% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 122 away

1.27

creates per match

0.89

1.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Wolves

0.89

allows per match

Swansea

1.38

Wolves

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

69%

Swansea or Wolves

73%

Draw or Wolves

57%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

20%

Wolves wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

75%

Swansea 2+ goals

40%

Swansea 3+ goals

16%

Wolves 1+ goals

68%

Wolves 2+ goals

32%

Wolves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

58%

Wolves (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Wolves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Wolves attack 0.89 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Swansea scores more

43%

level

27%

Wolves scores more

31%

Swansea at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Andrea Orlandi↳ S. Sinclair

4'

J. Allen↳ G. Sigurdsson

15'

N. Dyer↳ Andrea Orlandi

29'

S. Fletcher↳ K. Doyle

31'

D. Graham↳ N. Dyer

33'

M. Jarvis↳ K. Doyle

46'

N. Taylor← Andrea Orlandi

54'

D. Edwards↳ M. Kightly

69'

M. Jarvis↳ S. Fletcher

72'

S. Hunt← M. Jarvis

76'

S. Ebanks-Blake← S. Fletcher

82'

L. Moore← D. Graham

Swansea

Wolves

31

16

11

5

32

8

7

A

Kightly

17

⚽2

▼

Jarvis

4

⚽

Edwards

10

⚽A

▼

Fletcher

29

A

1

2

16

4

12

⚽A

Dyer

11

A

Sinclair

7

Britton

8

⚽A

▼

Orlandi

24

⚽

Allen

42

A

Sigurdsso

10

⚽

▼

Graham

46'▲N. Taylor←▼Andrea Orlandi

82'▲L. Moore←▼D. Graham

Swansea substitutes

3Taylor19Moore15Routledge17McEachran18Lita25Tremmel27Gower

72'▲S. Hunt←▼M. Jarvis

76'▲S. Ebanks-Blake←▼S. Fletcher

Wolves substitutes

12Hunt9Ebanks-Blake13Ikeme14Johnson20Milijas22Jonsson23Zubar

Match Recap: Swansea vs Wolves

Swansea and Wolves drew 4-4 in Premier League on April 28, 2012.

Goals: Andrea Orlandi (1'), J. Allen (4'), N. Dyer (15'), S. Fletcher (29'), D. Graham (31'), M. Jarvis (33', 69'), D. Edwards (54').

The match was played at Liberty Stadium (Swansea).

Swansea vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Swansea vs Wolves