Wolves 1–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Southampton

Daniel Podence 45+1'

9/3/2022

Premier League · Round 6Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Wolves41%

×Draw26%

Southampton32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.18

Wolves

1.38

Southampton

1.18

Wolves creates 17% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 173 away

1.13

creates per match

1.05

1.30

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Wolves

1.13

Southampton

1.05

allows per match

Wolves

1.30

Southampton

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

68%

Wolves or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

59%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

19%

Southampton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

40%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Southampton 1+ goals

69%

Southampton 2+ goals

33%

Southampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

56%

Southampton (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.13 + Southampton defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Southampton attack 1.05 + Wolves defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wolves scores more

41%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

32%

Wolves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Matheus Nunes

Wolves · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Jonny Otto

45'

Ibrahima Diallo

45+1'

Daniel Podence↳ Matheus Nunes

46'

Gonçalo Guedes← S. Kalajdzic

56'

S. Armstrong← M. Elyounoussi

56'

M. Djenepo← I. Diallo

73'

S. Edozie← J. Aribo

73'

A. Maitland-Niles← R. Perraud

76'

João Moutinho

81'

Rúben Neves

82'

Adama Traoré← Pedro Neto

82'

Hwang Hee-Chan← Daniel Podence

83'

S. Mara← A. Armstrong

90+4'

Gonçalo Guedes

90+5'

Armel Bella-Kotchap

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesSouthampton

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots12

5Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target1

4Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box7

1Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

432Total Passes406

349Accurate Passes317

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0