Wolves 1–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Southampton

R. Jiménez 61' (pen)

D. Ings 53'

10/19/2019

Premier League · Round 9Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wolves45%

×Draw25%

Southampton30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

Wolves

1.54

Southampton

1.20

Wolves creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

1.10

creates per match

0.95

1.45

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Wolves

1.10

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Wolves

1.45

Southampton

1.99

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Wolves-0.10scores less

Southampton-0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

70%

Wolves or Southampton

75%

Draw or Southampton

55%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

23%

Southampton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

79%

Wolves 2+ goals

45%

Wolves 3+ goals

20%

Southampton 1+ goals

70%

Southampton 2+ goals

34%

Southampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

60%

Southampton (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.99 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.10 + Southampton defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.54

Southampton attack 0.95 + Wolves defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wolves scores more

45%

level

25%

Southampton scores more

30%

Wolves at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Ings

Southampton · F

7.5

Match Events

10'

18'

29'

45'

46'

M. Doherty← Rúben Neves

53'

D. Ings

61'

R. JiménezPenalty

62'

Diogo Jota← P. Cutrone

68'

Jesús Vallejo

76'

S. Boufal← Y. Valery

82'

K. Danso← Oriol Romeu

90'

Ryan Bertrand

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesSouthampton

Overview

57%Possession43%

4Total Shots14

1Corners3

10Fouls17

Shots

4Total Shots14

1On Target5

3Off Target5

0Blocked4

2Inside Box12

2Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

511Total Passes385

399Accurate Passes288

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2