Wolves 3–2 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Wolves

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

Léo Bonatini 63', 59' (pen)

Ivan Cavaleiro 44'

C. Coady 76' (OG)

J. Hugill 65'

10/21/2017

Championship · Round 13Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Wolves48%

×Draw26%

Preston26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.03

Wolves

1.51

Preston

1.03

Wolves creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Wolves

1.50

Preston

1.00

allows per match

Wolves

1.06

Preston

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

74%

Wolves or Preston

74%

Draw or Preston

52%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

24%

Preston wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

78%

Wolves 2+ goals

44%

Wolves 3+ goals

19%

Preston 1+ goals

64%

Preston 2+ goals

28%

Preston 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

65%

Preston (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.50 + Preston defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Preston attack 1.00 + Wolves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolves scores more

48%

level

26%

Preston scores more

26%

Wolves at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Léo Bonatini

Wolves · F

8.5

Match Events

44'

Ivan Cavaleiro↳ B. Douglas

48'

Alan Browne

59'

Léo BonatiniPenalty

61'

S. Mavididi← J. Harrop

63'

65'

71'

73'

75'

Hélder Costa← Léo Bonatini

75'

B. Enobakhare← Ivan Cavaleiro

76'

C. CoadyOwn goal

83'

A. N'Diaye← Diogo Jota

85'

90'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesPreston

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots10

3Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

362Total Passes445

247Accurate Passes342

68%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1