Wolves 1–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Newcastle

W. Boly 90+5'

I. Hayden 56'

2/11/2019

Premier League · Round 26Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Wolves33%

×Draw27%

Newcastle40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.31

Wolves

1.17

Newcastle

1.31

Newcastle creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

1.11

creates per match

1.20

1.43

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Wolves

1.11

Newcastle

1.20

allows per match

Wolves

1.43

Newcastle

1.23

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.08on par

Newcastle-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

60%

Wolves or Newcastle

73%

Draw or Newcastle

67%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

14%

Newcastle wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

69%

Wolves 2+ goals

33%

Wolves 3+ goals

11%

Newcastle 1+ goals

73%

Newcastle 2+ goals

38%

Newcastle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

45%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 31 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.23 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.11 + Newcastle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Newcastle attack 1.20 + Wolves defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolves scores more

33%

level

27%

Newcastle scores more

40%

Newcastle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

W. Boly

Wolves · D

7.9

Match Events

44'

51'

51'

56'

68'

69'

Ivan Cavaleiro← L. Dendoncker

69'

Hélder Costa← Diogo Jota

72'

M. Almirón← C. Atsu

81'

Adama Traoré← M. Doherty

86'

M. Diamé← I. Hayden

90+1'

Javi Manquillo← Ayoze Pérez

90+5'

W. Boly↳ Adama Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesNewcastle

Overview

59%Possession41%

22Total Shots9

13Corners1

7Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots9

6On Target3

8Off Target2

8Blocked4

16Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

623Total Passes434

502Accurate Passes322

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1