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Newcastle vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Newcastle
Newcastle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wolves
Wolves
C. Wood 72' (pen)
4/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32St. James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Newcastle52%
×Draw23%
Wolves25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle
1.78
Wolves
1.15

Newcastle creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Newcastle
1.96
Wolves
0.82

allows per match

Newcastle
1.48
Wolves
1.60

finishing

Newcastle-0.07on par
Wolves-0.34scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw
75%
Newcastle or Wolves
77%
Draw or Wolves
48%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+
29%
Wolves wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals
83%
Newcastle 2+ goals
53%
Newcastle 3+ goals
26%
Wolves 1+ goals
68%
Wolves 2+ goals
32%
Wolves 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)
68%
Wolves (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.48 · 19 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.60 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.96 + Wolves defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.78

Wolves attack 0.82 + Newcastle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newcastle scores more
52%
level
23%
Wolves scores more
25%

Newcastle at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. DúbravkaNewcastleNewcastle · G
7.5

Match Events

13'
M. Almirón← R. Fraser
25'
Chris WoodGoal cancelled
56'
Fabian Schär
71'
Chris WoodPenalty confirmed
72'
C. WoodPenalty
78'
Pedro Neto← Hwang Hee-Chan
78'
C. Campbell← Trincão
86'
R. Aït Nouri← Fernando Marçal
87'
João Moutinho
88'
S. Longstaff← Bruno Guimarães
90+5'
J. Murphy← A. Saint-Maximin

Possession

41%Newcastle

Shots

12Newcastle

Pass accuracy

49%Newcastle

Statistics

NewcastleWolves
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots5
1Corners2
6Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots5
4On Target2
3Off Target2
5Blocked1
8Inside Box3
4Outside Box2
Passing
41%Possession59%
378Total Passes546
308Accurate Passes453
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Newcastle vs Wolves

Newcastle beat Wolves 1-0 in Premier League on April 8, 2022.

Goals: C. Wood (72' pen).

Wolves controlled possession (59%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne.