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Wolves vs Fulham — Premier League 2026

Wolves
Wolves
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fulham
Fulham
8/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Wolves38%
×Draw26%
Fulham36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolves
1.34
Fulham
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 24 away

creates per match

Wolves
1.04
Fulham
1.14

allows per match

Wolves
1.46
Fulham
1.65

finishing

Wolves-0.09on par
Fulham-0.18scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Fulham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wolves or draw
64%
Wolves or Fulham
74%
Draw or Fulham
62%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+
17%
Fulham wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Wolves 2+ goals
39%
Wolves 3+ goals
15%
Fulham 1+ goals
73%
Fulham 2+ goals
37%
Fulham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)
51%
Fulham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.46 · 21 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.04 + Fulham defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fulham attack 1.14 + Wolves defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wolves scores more
38%
level
26%
Fulham scores more
36%

Wolves at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wolves 0–0 Fulham

Wolves and Fulham drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton, West Midlands.