Wolves 2–3 Everton: Result & Stats | Premier League

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.27

Wolves

1.39

Everton

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

1.09

1.44

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Wolves

1.08

Everton

1.09

allows per match

Wolves

1.44

Everton

1.70

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Wolves-0.01on par

Everton-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

66%

Wolves or Everton

74%

Draw or Everton

60%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

19%

Everton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

40%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Everton 1+ goals

72%

Everton 2+ goals

36%

Everton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

54%

Everton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Everton away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.08 + Everton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Everton attack 1.09 + Wolves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolves scores more

40%

level

26%

Everton scores more

34%

Wolves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Beto↳ J. Grealish

16'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

21'

Hwang Hee-Chan↳ M. Munetsi

33'

I. Ndiaye↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

55'

K. Dewsbury-Hall↳ J. Grealish

63'

R. Gomes← J. Tchatchoua

64'

J. Bellegarde← J. Arias

64'

F. Lopez← Andre

75'

D. M. Wolfe← H. Bueno

76'

S. Kalajdzic← Hwang Hee-Chan

76'

T. Barry← Beto

76'

T. Iroegbunam← I. Gueye

79'

R. Gomes↳ D. M. Wolfe

88'

C. Alcaraz← J. Grealish

90+6'

S. Coleman← I. Ndiaye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesEverton

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots10

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.93

2Corners2

15Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target4

3Off Target2

5Blocked4

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

524Total Passes371

421Accurate Passes275

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.84Goals Prevented-0.84

Discipline

15Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1